Dr. Aaron E. Carroll, a medical school professor, wrote an article for the Huffington post today, critiquing the arguments of those opposed to healthcare reform. He points out that there are legitimate reasons to oppose current legislation:

There are lots of legitimate reasons to dislike the current bills being considered as health care reform. For instance, the best of them considers universal coverage to mean that more than 12 million people are still left without health insurance. None of the bills do much to contain costs, meaning that health care costs may still rise faster than inflation and consume even more of our GDP. Too few people are likely to be able to access many of the benefits of reform, such as the insurance exchange. Read the rest of this entry »

Democrats are working hard this week to firmly establish the link between healthcare reform and the health of small business in America.

Tomorrow, Senator Patty Murray will attend a hearing on the rising costs small business owners face in of providing healthcare for their employees.

According to the release, “The hearing will also highlight how health care reform legislation will lower costs, provide employees with portable care, and ease the burden of providing care for small businesses.”

Also tomorrow, Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius and Small Business Administration Administrator Karen Mills will join “Small business owners from across the country for a briefing on the impact of health insurance reform on small business.”

Beginning at 9:45 (Washington state time), the briefing will be streamed live here. There will also be a simultaneous chat hosted during the event here.

Last week, Administrator Karen Mills of the Small Business Administration held a short conference call with media outlets to discuss how healthcare reform will affect small businesses in the Unites States. The only mention of healthcare came eight minutes into the call and was brief, but you can download and listen to that phone call here.

I indicated a few days ago that Republicans have been extremely critical of the House healthcare bill, while not proposing an alternative solution. Well, today House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) announced that the Republicans will offer an alternative bill, aimed at increasing coverage while keeping the price tag and government oversight to a minimum. The Wall Street Journal has the story:

Mr. Boehner said Sunday the Republican bill would extend health-insurance coverage to “millions” of Americans but wouldn’t try to match the scope of the House Democratic bill unveiled last week. The Democratic legislation, if passed, is estimated to expand coverage to more than 30 million Americans now without insurance. Its estimated gross cost is $1.055 trillion over 10 years.

“What we do is we try to make the current system work better,” Mr. Boehner, of Ohio, said on CNN’s “State of the Nation.” The GOP plan would likely be less costly to taxpayers and involve less government intrusion into the private sector. Mr. Boehner said the bill would take “a step-by-step approach” to expanding coverage.

Last week, four Snohomish County representatives, Marko Liias (WA-21st), John McCoy (WA-38th), Mary Helen Roberts (WA-21st) and Mike Sells (WA-34st), wrote a letter of support for a public option in healthcare reform to Unites States Congressman Rick Larsen (2nd).

“We write to express our enthusiastic support for the inclusion of a strong public option in the health care reform bill presently being debated in the House. As state legislators, we would be remiss if we did not voice our opinions on the current debate,” the letter states. “A strong public option is a critical fallback for the many different groups that would be covered under the reform plan.”

They go on to say, “The implementation of a strong public option would create incentives for insurance companies to charge competitive rates and become more efficient. Lower prices and better efficiency would benefit everyone, including those that presently have health insurance. In addition, the competition created by a strong public option would incentivize insurance plans to focus more on primary care and preventative medicine, leading to improved health outcomes and better care.”

Initiative 1033

Two recent polls from SurveyUSA and UW researchers on Initiative 1033 show a significant shift from less than a month ago. On October 6th a SurveyUSA poll showed 45% voting “Yes” on 1033 versus 32% voting “No” on 1033.

The most recent poll shows 49% voting “No” on 1033 and only 39% voting “Yes” on 1033.

Based on these numbers, it appears the No on 1033 campaign is starting to reach voters. That campaign has operated under the premise that the more people know about 1033, the more likely they are to vote against it.

One surprising demographic that “Yes” on 1033 is winning is the 18-34 age range, a group that is far less likely to own property (1033 would shift excess revenues to lower property taxes) and are far more likely to depend on public services (which stand to face myriad cuts if 1033 passes). “Yes on 1033″ is winning Conservative voters and leads in both Western and Eastern Washington, but lags far behind in Metro Seattle, illustrating the political might of Seattle.

Referendum 71

The Approve Referendum 71 campaign is also making gains in polls, picking up crucial undecideds. Polling at the beginning of the month put Approve R-71 45%-42% with 13% undecided. Now, Approve R-71 leads 50%-43% with only 7% undecided. All of those undecideds will need to be won by the Reject R-71 campaign if they hope to eliminate the “Everything but Marriage” law.

Ballot Returns To Date

A few days after ballots were received by voters, county auditors have been counting how many they have received. For example, in King County, of the 1,084,257 ballots mailed, 20.15% have been received.

Based on Secretary of State Sam Reed’s prediction of a 51% voter turnout, that means not even 40% of King County’s likely voters have returned their ballots. Those numbers mean that most people still have not mailed in their ballots.

In Snohomish County, the latest returns are at 23.77%, or 46.6% of Secretary Reed’s voter turnout prediction.

The Politico published a piece this morning, summarizing which members of the House and Senate will have the most say regarding the fate of healthcare reform. This article does a great job of not only identifying “who’s who” in the healthcare debate, but also shows how just a handful of legislators can determine the outcome of important legislation.

Last week, I wrote about Sen. Joe Lieberman’s (I-CT) opposition to the public option – here’s what the Politico article had to say about it:

Lieberman’s pledge last week to vote against any bill with a government insurance option sent a reminder — as if one were needed — that any single senator has the power to cast passage of health care legislation into doubt. As long as Reid sticks to his 60-vote strategy, the majority leader will need to meet an endless list of demands from his Democratic Caucus. Lieberman was just the latest wild card. Indeed, Sen. Roland Burris (D-Ill.) has threatened to oppose any bill that lacks a public option.

Read the entire article here.

As I discussed last week, passing healthcare reform is increasingly about next year’s midterm elections as much as it is about passing reform. During ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday, former RNC chairman made the point that increasingly Democrats risk losing their substantial House majority.

“I know that they were willing to sacrifice 20 conservative Democrats or moderate Democrats to get this done. I think they risk losing the house if they try to pass this bill and they jam it through the way it’s written."