Two sets of numbers of interest today, saying similar if seemingly contradictory things.

Rasmussen reports that 51% of Americans now support Obama’s health plan, the highest number yet.

“Support for the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats continues to grow following the president’s speech to Congress last Wednesday night. It has now risen to the highest level yet measured, and, for the first time, shows a slight uptick in support among Republicans and voters not affiliated with either party.”

Another set of numbers comes to us from The Fix’s Chris Cillizza, where he reports that as people learn more about the plan discussed, opposition rises to 54%. The full write up on the Washington Post poll is here.

I haven’t made time to dig into these numbers yet, but the basic story is that while general opposition is easing somewhat, the country remains deeply divided over this issue in spite of new focus and energy from the president.

Last week on Tuesday, I was asked by a center-right friend, who is genuinely pulling for Obama on healthcare, the following question.

“Why isn’t Obama doing anything on tort reform? I mean, I don’t know the full impact it would have on cost. I know folks will go back and forth on numbers there. But, just the perception that he’s addressing it, I think, would go a long ways with folks. I know it would with my parents, both of whom are on Medicare, are conservative, and who think Obama is protecting his base of folks, like trial lawyers, by leaving it out.

At the time, I responded that I thought that most folks who really care about tort reform as an issue are not going to be persuaded on the larger health care reform question by addressing tort reform. In other words, those calling for tort reform will oppose Obama and will oppose the final health care reform package no matter what concessions the President makes. I have always thought that to be the case with the larger debate, and it applies in this specific example as well — Republicans will pillory the president, and ultimately vote against his plan in Congress, because it makes electoral sense for them to do it. So, don’t expect much from them even if you get a compromise bill.

However, it took my watching 60 Minutes here at 3:30 in the morning to get the real point of tort reform, and my friend’s question. It’s the perception that matters — and specifically to centrists watching this debate. That’s why the effort at bi-partisanship matters, and why the effort on tort reform matters.

The effort on tort reform will not hurt him with his base, and it may help reinforce a few votes in Congress, like Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana. But among the moderate, centrist and even center-right voters in Pennsylvania, Connecticut and Ohio — all three with tight Senate races in 2010 — it’s the perception of Obama reaching out that matters.

This weekend, I saw some polling numbers for Washington State which made the point clearly. Moderate and lean-Republican voters are willing to give Obama the benefit of the doubt on the public option and reform in general if he is perceived to be 1) reaching across the aisle and 2) addressing the “entire” health reform issue, rather than cherry picking issues to suit his base. Just as importantly, these voters then tend to increase in support for Sen. Patty Murray in her re-elect numbers (already very high) against a nameless Republican opponent.

This last point gets to the importance of tort reform, and what my friend Brian was getting at: if Obama keeps moderate and center-right voters on board — in spite of how votes in Congress come down — he is more likely to retain key Senate and House Democratic seats in swing states in 2010. If the health care debate leaves those voters behind, it will be harder to keep them on board for Congressional Democrats heading into next fall’s elections. Not rocket science, I guess.

UPDATE: Politico.com has a take similar to my own in a post this morning. Read it here.

In case you missed it, you might spend a few minutes watching the 60 Minutes interview with Obama. It was taped Friday, two days after his big speech last week. Note the prominence of tort reform in the interview.



So, what do you think? When Obama says “I own it” if this bill passes, is that an overstatement? Think this becomes Obama’s cornerstone issue for 2012 if this passes?

Robert Samuelson is often a curmudgeon when it comes to policy and politics, but his insights are usually very important. They may or may not be right, but he generally makes a very compelling case. And, perhaps most importantly, he is widely-read — regardless of the quality of his insights — among policy makers in DC.

Here is his post this week, hosted on Real Clear Politics, titled “The Candor Gap.”

He makes two points that are worth re-stating here.

Americans generally want three things from their health care system. First, they think that everyone has a moral right to needed care; that suggests universal insurance. Second, they want choice; they want to select their doctors — and want doctors to determine treatment. Finally, people want costs controlled; health care shouldn’t consume all private compensation or taxes.

Here essentially are the basic points targeted in the health care debate. I mention it here primarily because of its brevity rather than its novelty. This is, in short, what Americans want, as he believes. I think he’s generally correct.

Here’s the real key, however. Again, it’s not new — at least among folks who really understand health policy — but it’s certainly a conclusion you seldom hear in the policy debates held among our Congressional leaders.

The problem is that you can’t entirely believe Obama. If he were candid — if we were candid — we’d all acknowledge that the goals of our ideal health care system collide. Perhaps we can have any two, but not all three.

In other words, if you want perfect when it comes to health policy, we’re not going to get there. Someone, some group, is going to be challenged some way, either through access, through quality, or through cost. So, even if we get a health reform plan that is as good as we can hope for, there will still be problems and challenges ahead. This is certainly true with the implementation of reform, but it’s also going to be true of reform itself. We won’t get “a whole loaf,” and so we’ll continue to need to address health policy in administrations to come.

Indeed, contrary to the President’s statements, he probably won’t be the “last president” to deal with this issue.

On Wednesday, September 9, President Barack Obama spoke about healthcare reform before a joint session of Congress. Here is the full video of that speech.



Video courtesy of CBS