A new poll done by UW researchers suggests 49% of likely voters statewide are opposed to Initiative 1033 and 40% support the initiative with 10% undecided.

Among those surveyed in the Washington Poll who had already sent in their ballots, 56% said they voted “No” and 44% said they voted “Yes.”

Assuming Secretary of State Sam Reed’s prediction of 51% turnout, about 22% of voters in King County have already voted, and about 28% of voters in Snohomish County have already voted.

The poll showed 57% of respondents voting to “Approve” Referendum 71 and only 38% voting to “Reject” it.

The poll was based on interviews with 724 registered voters statewide, with a margin of error of 3.6%. Respondents were asked about Initiative 1033 first in each interview, meaning any priming effect, while unlikely, would have affected Referendum 71 results and not Initiative 1033 results.

These results constitute great news for supporters of state subsidized healthcare plans like the Basic Health Plan, which currently provides reduced cost health insurance for 103,687 low-income Washingtonians and children. Though, according to Health Care Authority estimates, that number could be reduced to 67,000 in 2010 at a cost of $234.16 per life, per month.

Passage of Initiative 1033 would almost surely mean further cuts to state subsidized programs like the Basic Health Plan. It would also mean long-term increases in healthcare costs to Washington taxpayers because (1) uninsured Washingtonians will be forced to visit emergency rooms for their medical needs, which is far more expensive than clinical visits, and (2) insurers negotiate with hospitals for better rates per procedure, and uninsured people have to pay the “ticket” price for procedures (which often means a difference of thousands of dollars). Again, those bills for uninsured Washingtonians are paid for by Washington taxpayers.