Initiative 1033
Two recent polls from SurveyUSA and UW researchers on Initiative 1033 show a significant shift from less than a month ago. On October 6th a SurveyUSA poll showed 45% voting “Yes” on 1033 versus 32% voting “No” on 1033.
The most recent poll shows 49% voting “No” on 1033 and only 39% voting “Yes” on 1033.
Based on these numbers, it appears the No on 1033 campaign is starting to reach voters. That campaign has operated under the premise that the more people know about 1033, the more likely they are to vote against it.
One surprising demographic that “Yes” on 1033 is winning is the 18-34 age range, a group that is far less likely to own property (1033 would shift excess revenues to lower property taxes) and are far more likely to depend on public services (which stand to face myriad cuts if 1033 passes). “Yes on 1033″ is winning Conservative voters and leads in both Western and Eastern Washington, but lags far behind in Metro Seattle, illustrating the political might of Seattle.
Referendum 71
The Approve Referendum 71 campaign is also making gains in polls, picking up crucial undecideds. Polling at the beginning of the month put Approve R-71 45%-42% with 13% undecided. Now, Approve R-71 leads 50%-43% with only 7% undecided. All of those undecideds will need to be won by the Reject R-71 campaign if they hope to eliminate the “Everything but Marriage” law.
Ballot Returns To Date
A few days after ballots were received by voters, county auditors have been counting how many they have received. For example, in King County, of the 1,084,257 ballots mailed, 20.15% have been received.
Based on Secretary of State Sam Reed’s prediction of a 51% voter turnout, that means not even 40% of King County’s likely voters have returned their ballots. Those numbers mean that most people still have not mailed in their ballots.
In Snohomish County, the latest returns are at 23.77%, or 46.6% of Secretary Reed’s voter turnout prediction.
Posts Tagged ‘R-71’
2009 Election Update
Monday, November 2nd, 2009New poll suggests 1033 race closer than expected
Tuesday, October 27th, 2009A new poll done by UW researchers suggests 49% of likely voters statewide are opposed to Initiative 1033 and 40% support the initiative with 10% undecided.
Among those surveyed in the Washington Poll who had already sent in their ballots, 56% said they voted “No” and 44% said they voted “Yes.”
Assuming Secretary of State Sam Reed’s prediction of 51% turnout, about 22% of voters in King County have already voted, and about 28% of voters in Snohomish County have already voted.
The poll showed 57% of respondents voting to “Approve” Referendum 71 and only 38% voting to “Reject” it.
The poll was based on interviews with 724 registered voters statewide, with a margin of error of 3.6%. Respondents were asked about Initiative 1033 first in each interview, meaning any priming effect, while unlikely, would have affected Referendum 71 results and not Initiative 1033 results.
These results constitute great news for supporters of state subsidized healthcare plans like the Basic Health Plan, which currently provides reduced cost health insurance for 103,687 low-income Washingtonians and children. Though, according to Health Care Authority estimates, that number could be reduced to 67,000 in 2010 at a cost of $234.16 per life, per month.
Passage of Initiative 1033 would almost surely mean further cuts to state subsidized programs like the Basic Health Plan. It would also mean long-term increases in healthcare costs to Washington taxpayers because (1) uninsured Washingtonians will be forced to visit emergency rooms for their medical needs, which is far more expensive than clinical visits, and (2) insurers negotiate with hospitals for better rates per procedure, and uninsured people have to pay the “ticket” price for procedures (which often means a difference of thousands of dollars). Again, those bills for uninsured Washingtonians are paid for by Washington taxpayers.