Initiative 1033

Two recent polls from SurveyUSA and UW researchers on Initiative 1033 show a significant shift from less than a month ago. On October 6th a SurveyUSA poll showed 45% voting “Yes” on 1033 versus 32% voting “No” on 1033.

The most recent poll shows 49% voting “No” on 1033 and only 39% voting “Yes” on 1033.

Based on these numbers, it appears the No on 1033 campaign is starting to reach voters. That campaign has operated under the premise that the more people know about 1033, the more likely they are to vote against it.

One surprising demographic that “Yes” on 1033 is winning is the 18-34 age range, a group that is far less likely to own property (1033 would shift excess revenues to lower property taxes) and are far more likely to depend on public services (which stand to face myriad cuts if 1033 passes). “Yes on 1033″ is winning Conservative voters and leads in both Western and Eastern Washington, but lags far behind in Metro Seattle, illustrating the political might of Seattle.

Referendum 71

The Approve Referendum 71 campaign is also making gains in polls, picking up crucial undecideds. Polling at the beginning of the month put Approve R-71 45%-42% with 13% undecided. Now, Approve R-71 leads 50%-43% with only 7% undecided. All of those undecideds will need to be won by the Reject R-71 campaign if they hope to eliminate the “Everything but Marriage” law.

Ballot Returns To Date

A few days after ballots were received by voters, county auditors have been counting how many they have received. For example, in King County, of the 1,084,257 ballots mailed, 20.15% have been received.

Based on Secretary of State Sam Reed’s prediction of a 51% voter turnout, that means not even 40% of King County’s likely voters have returned their ballots. Those numbers mean that most people still have not mailed in their ballots.

In Snohomish County, the latest returns are at 23.77%, or 46.6% of Secretary Reed’s voter turnout prediction.